Lay the draw (LTD) is arguably the most frequently utilized strategy within football trading. Its widespread popularity stems from its simplicity and the relatively high winning percentages it offers. It is a straightforward strategy that is accessible even to newcomers to bet exchanges, provided they adhere to a clearly defined plan.
What Does Lay the Draw Mean?
The Lay the Draw strategy is a procedure centered on avoiding a draw result in a sporting event. This strategy is used almost exclusively in football, though it can technically be expanded to any sport that offers the draw as a match result.
The procedure involves laying a bet on a betting exchange, which means the punter technically offers odds on a certain sporting event, operating similarly to a traditional bookmaker.
Statistically, the general confirmation percentage for a draw marginally surpasses 30%. Consequently, a punter employing the Lay the Draw strategy starts with a near 70% percentage of winning. By carefully selecting matches that fulfill specific criteria, this percentage can be increased even further, explaining why many punters lay the draw for a living.
Lay the Draw Example
To illustrate the mechanism, suppose you decide to lay a draw at 3.30 odds with a €100 stake.
- Exposure: Your “initial” bet requires an “exposure” of another €230. If the match ends in a draw, you must pay €330 to the punter(s) who backed the draw at those odds.
- Winning Scenario: If the match concludes with a winner (i.e., not a draw), you keep your original €100 stake and win the €100 that other players staked on the draw.
It is possible to intervene during the match, especially if you follow a dropping odds strategy.
- If both teams fail to score for a long period, the draw prices will drop.
- As the match progresses and a one-goal lead is maintained, the odds for the draw will increase. If the leading team scores another goal, the draw odds usually reach double digits, significantly increasing your profits if you were to “back the draw” to cover your liability.
How to Lay the Draw for a Living (Picking Profitable Matches)
Achieving consistent success with the Lay the Draw strategy depends heavily on disciplined match selection. The basic rule is to choose matches featuring clear favorites, where the probability of a draw is inherently lower.
Highly Recommended Matches
- Strong Favorite at Home: Select a strong team playing at home against a minor opponent. Such a team is unlikely to settle for a draw and will continue attacking until the final second.
- In some leagues, the percentage of a draw stands below 25%, offering a theoretical 75% winning possibility. While the draw odds might be higher (making your exposure to risk greater), the probability is in your favor.
- Undesirable Draw: Select matches where a draw is an undesirable outcome for both teams. This often includes matches during the closing stages of a league when both teams desperately need points to achieve their seasonal goals.
Matches to Avoid
It is crucial to know what types of matches should be avoided when employing this strategy:
- Matches where opponents exhibit little to no difference in strength.
- Matches where you know a draw suits the goals of both teams.
- Laying the draw in matches with an away favorite is generally far from profitable, according to statistics.
Which is the Most Profitable Lay the Draw Strategy?
Choosing one single “most profitable” system is challenging, as the sources outline five basic Lay the Draw strategies used by punters.
- Laying the draw pre-match: You place your bet before the match begins and wait for a winner at the final whistle.
- Laying the draw at halftime: This involves picking a match that is currently a draw at halftime. It is considered safer, as your exposure (the money you must pay backers) is roughly half that of a pre-match bet.
- Laying the score at halftime: Instead of laying the draw result, you lay a specific draw score (e.g., 0-0, 1-1, 2-2). Although the exposure is much higher because correct scores carry higher odds, the possibilities of winning are also higher. For example, in a match standing at a goalless draw at halftime, the odds for 0-0 might drop significantly (e.g., to 4.50 from over 10.00 pre-match), making it a bargain since both teams have a full half to score.
- Laying a halftime draw: You place a pre-match bet specifically on the half-time draw outcome. This strategy has a much lower exposure, as the draw odds for halftime usually hover around 2.00.
- Lay the 0-0 for halftime correct score: This is worth trying when you are confident that at least one goal will be scored in the first half. The odds for a 0-0 correct score at halftime are often much smaller (more than half) than the Full Time (FT) 0-0 odds.
Advanced Strategy: Lay the Draw & Back the Correct Score
A more advanced approach combines laying and backing. You lay the draw while simultaneously backing the draw correct scores, typically starting from 0-0 and moving up to 1-1 or 2-2.
If you are confident that at least one goal will be scored in the match, you can omit backing the 0-0 score to claim more profit. In this complex strategy, loss usually only occurs if a high-scoring draw, such as 3-3 or 4-4, appears, with the total profit typically ranging around 10–20% of your stake.
Strategy Management
Managing your position during the match is key to protecting profits and limiting losses:
Laying the Draw Pre-match Management
If you lay the draw pre-match, you should:
- Cash out when the favorite scores. Following this immediately after the first goal eliminates your chance of losing (you will only lose if the match ends as a goalless draw). Cashing out usually secures around 30%-40% of the total profit you would have claimed with the initial odds.
- Set a cut loss edge. If minutes pass and the deadlock is not broken, the odds for a draw will naturally drop. To prevent losing your entire stake, you must set a point where you agree to cash out and accept the loss. This edge is typically set at 2.00 odds for the draw, usually occurring around the 65–70 minute mark for an average match.
Laying Draw at Halftime Management
If you have laid the draw or a specific score at halftime:
- If the ball finds the net, you instantly win the bet.
- If the favorite scores, you can either cash out or wait for the final whistle if you believe they will not concede.
- If no additional goals are scored as the match nears its close, it is often best to let your bet run, as the odds typically reflect this liability, and there is always the chance of a late win.
Utilizing the Best Bet Exchanges
The Lay the Draw strategy relies on the use of betting exchanges, as laying a bet requires someone to match your wager. A high volume of stakes (high liquidity) is necessary to ensure your bet is picked up.
The Betfair betting exchange, established in 2000, revolutionized online gambling by allowing bettors to compete against each other based on models resembling poker or a stock exchange.
Key aspects of betting exchanges:
- Players can bet with very high limits.
- Exchanges offer more fair conditions for covering wagers compared to the Cash Out feature offered by traditional bookmakers.
- Professional bettors use exchanges to follow market trends and sell their bets.
- Betfair’s high liquidity generally guarantees that bets will be traded, although the liquidity of less popular sports and leagues has decreased dramatically due to regulatory difficulties in certain countries.
However, commission fees on exchanges like Betfair can be relatively steep compared to competitors such as Matchbook or Smarkets. Additional charges may apply if you become a very successful trader.