It is Sunday night, and punters worldwide are often left contemplating betting results that seem unbelievable, such as Real Madrid losing at home to Eibar or Liverpool conceding seven goals from Aston Villa. When inconsistent results occur, the age-old conspiracy theory surfaces: that the “darn bookie fixed the results to steal my money”. The belief that global or backstreet bookmakers arrange outcomes, like who will win a local derby or whether an own goal will be scored in injury time, is a familiar one.

However, if you ever present this theory to a bookie owner, he would answer that it is nothing but pure nonsense. Bookmakers are not only uninvolved in fixing matches, but they are also sworn enemies of match-fixers.

Why Bookmakers Do Not Fix Matches

Bookmakers do not fix matches because they do not have to. When it comes to betting, nearly every weapon is on their side.

The Power of the VIG and the Long Run

The most powerful tool in the bookmaker’s arsenal is the VIG (Vigorish): that small percentage of money that they receive regardless of the result. Because the VIG is incorporated across all markets, bookmakers are guaranteed a profit in the long run.

According to the law of large numbers in gambling, the bookie will always win in the long run under normal circumstances. Although a site might lose money during a week, the quarterly reports will most likely show a profit. A bookmaker will offer tens of thousands of bets and cares primarily about balancing the total amount staked to guarantee a higher profit from the rake.

Given all these tools, a sportsbook would risk the profits of a trustworthy long-term reputation for a short-term gain from a single match.

Risk Management Tools

Apart from the VIG, bookmakers possess countless other ways to cut losses or increase profits. These include:

• Rejecting a bet.
• Lowering the amount you can stake.
• Removing specific betting markets.
• Placing a counter-wager on other bookmakers or betting exchanges.

A fixed match is viewed as a “violent intervention” to the normal state of affairs. While awarding a hefty cash reward to a match-fixing syndicate may not bankrupt a sportsbook, it can lead to a huge loss in their revenue.

Bookmakers at the Forefront of Anti-Fixing Measures

When sports scandals occur, bookmakers are typically nowhere near them. In fact, they are nowadays at the forefront of match-fixing investigations.

The Anti-Fixing Coalition

Almost every bookie in the industry has joined the Anti-fixing Coalition. This coalition is essentially a network where betting sites exchange information on player behavior.

Members of this coalition employ financial experts and risk managers and use sophisticated software to instantly know the identity and amount behind each choice. This technology allows them to evaluate whether or not a match should be considered suspicious.

Unusual activity that triggers an industry-wide alarm includes:

• Large amounts of money placed on a minor league match.
• An influx of bets on high-paying choices, such as half-time comebacks or correct scores.

If they detect suspicious activity and large stakes, especially in minor leagues, they notify each other to prevent losses. Moreover, bookmakers notify authorities and provide necessary figures, including details on the amounts placed on certain wagers and the identity of the persons involved.

Individuals involved in match-fixing are usually banned from every site, as there is an informal “black list” including names, IDs, and financial details.

The Undeniable Reality of Match Fixing

While bookmakers themselves generally do not fix matches, it is an undeniable truth that match-fixing takes place in sports. Similar to anything else in everyday life, legality and morality can be bought for the right price.

Notable fixing scandals from the past include:

1. Cialciopoli (2006): This Italian scandal shook the football world, involving top Serie A teams like Juventus, Milan, Lazio, Fiorentina, and Reggina. They were found guilty of manipulating match results by the Sporting Court, leading to stripped titles, deducted points, and even relegation to Serie B for some teams.
2. Plateau United & Police Machine (2013): In this incident in Nigeria, two teams aiming for professional league promotion manipulated their final match scores. Plateau United won 79-0 (scoring 72 goals in the second half) in an attempt to promote. Authorities banned all involved teams for ten years.
3. Tim Donaghy: This NBA referee was found guilty of betting on games he was officiating and manipulating the final results. He used his connections and knowledge to pick teams he thought were closer to winning. After an FBI investigation, he was sentenced to 15 months in jail, though bettors who backed the opposite results were never reimbursed.
4. Ghost Game (Turkey 2015): Two Belarusian teams announced they would play a friendly match in Turkey, but the match never existed. Despite this, some bookmakers offered odds on the game, even live odds.

What You Can Do About Fixed Matches

Unless you know for certain that a match is fixed, there is no way of finding or avoiding fixed games. They occur everywhere, from 3rd Tier regional matches to top leagues like the NBA or the Italian Serie A.

For bettors, the less you know about fixed matches, the more enjoyable and profitable betting will be—a concept described as “ignorance is bliss”.

Key betting advice regarding fixing:

• You will inevitably encounter such games if you place bets on various leagues.
• Try to stay away from lesser leagues and sports you do not know a lot about or can’t watch live. Many things can happen behind closed doors.
• Make sure you are playing on high-odds betting sites.
• If you are uncomfortable playing on a bookmaker that you are not familiar with, it is best to close your account altogether.

FAQ

Q: Is match-fixing real? As real as the air you breathe. When money is involved, everything else is thrown out the window. There have been numerous confirmed and unconfirmed examples and incidents in the past, and unfortunately, there is nothing you can do about it.

Q: Do bookmakers fix matches? The answer is no. They don’t need to, simple as that. Because they incorporate the VIG on all markets, they are guaranteed a profit in the long run, so they realistically have no use in fixing a match.

Q: What is the anti-fixing coalition? It is a network where betting sites exchange information on player behavior. If they detect suspicious activity and large stakes placed on specific games, especially in minor leagues, they notify each other to prevent losing money on match-fixing.

Q: Which leagues should I avoid? There is no definitive list, as match-fixing incidents have involved top teams. However, bettors are advised to stay away from lesser leagues and sports they do not know a lot about or cannot watch live.