Dutching betting is an increasingly popular risk-minimizing strategy used by savvy bettors to spread their stake across multiple selections within the same event. Unlike standard wagering, the main principle of Dutching is to strategically split your overall investment across different potential outcomes so that the potential earnings remain the same, regardless of which of your chosen bets ultimately wins. This technique is commonly adopted in sports like horse racing and outrights betting, though it is applicable to virtually all sports and markets.
What is Dutching in Betting?
At its core, Dutching aims to reduce the risk of losing money by backing more than one possible outcome in a sports event. The key to establishing a Dutching opportunity lies in the Implied Probability of the combined selections.
The foundational principle for Dutching dictates that the total implied probability of the outcomes you select must be below 100% to have a guaranteed payout percentage. If the combined implied probability is below 100%, you have a genuine Dutching opportunity that provides profit no matter which selected outcome occurs.
Interestingly, the term “Dutching” originated from Dutch Schultz, a notorious mobster from New York during the prohibition era, born Arthur Simon Flegenheimer in 1902. The technique was reportedly found by Al Capone’s accountant as a method to gain an edge against bookmakers at the races.
How to Calculate Dutching Opportunities
Calculating the required stakes to ensure equal returns across multiple selections can be mathematically complex, especially with more than two outcomes. It is highly recommended to use a Dutch betting calculator or other software to simplify the process, save time, and avoid costly mistakes.
The mathematical formula for calculating the Implied Probability of a single outcome is: $$\text{Implied Probability} = 1/\text{Odds} \times 100$$
For two selections, the Dutching Implied Probability is calculated as: $$\text{Dutching Implied Probability} = (\text{Outcome 1 Implied Probability} \times 100) + (\text{Outcome 2 Implied Probability} \times 100)$$
Dutching Opportunity Example
Consider a scenario for the Spanish La Liga outright winner where the odds for Real Madrid are 1.95 and for Barcelona are 2.10.
- Real Madrid Implied Odds: 51.28% (1/1.95 x 100).
- Barcelona Implied Odds: 47.62% (1/2.10 x 100).
- Dutching Implied Probability: 51.28% + 47.62% = 98.9%.
Since 98.9% is lower than 100%, a Dutching opportunity exists. If you stake a total of €100, splitting it to risk €51.85 on Real Madrid (1.95 odds) and €48.15 on Barcelona (2.10 odds), your returns will be around €101.11, securing a profit of over €1, which is the same regardless of which team wins.
Conversely, if the total implied probability exceeds 100% (e.g., 103.18%), there is no Dutching opportunity, and staking €100 across the outcomes would result in a small loss.
Forming a Profitable Dutching Betting Strategy
While Dutching is a sound strategy, it does not guarantee a profit because an unselected underdog could still win and cause an upset. However, following key advice can significantly reduce the risk of losing and secure regular, steady returns:
- Focus on Specific Sports: Although Dutching applies to all sports, it is most popular in horse racing and greyhounds. You can also find profitable opportunities in football. Try to avoid using the method across multiple sports, as it is challenging to find value odds everywhere.
- Choose Markets with Fewer Outcomes: Since the number of bets increases the size of the necessary bankroll, it is beneficial to place fewer wagers on markets that have a limited number of possible outcomes.
- Utilize Calculators and Software: Due to the complexity of the math involved, using a Dutch betting calculator is an efficient way to simplify the method and avoid costly errors.
- Incorporate Betting Bonuses: Use a matched betting approach to enhance your bankroll. Bonuses such as Free Bets or Best Odds Guaranteed can allow you to place one of the Dutch bets without staking your own money, or to exploit potentially higher starting prices.
- Avoid Low Prices: Calculate value and implied probability accurately, and generally steer clear of low-priced odds when employing a Dutching strategy.
Football Dutching Strategy
To be profitable when building a football Dutching strategy, the main goal is to secure value on odds, whether betting on daily markets or outright league winners.
- Opt for 2-Way Markets: Markets like Over/Under or Both Teams To Score offer only two possible outcomes, making the calculations simpler and reducing the possibilities of losing.
- Consider 3-Way Markets: You can use the standard 3-way win market if you believe one outcome has fewer chances, or use markets like Double Chance, which covers two of the three possibilities.
- Use Higher Return Markets: Alternatives like Correct Score are popular among Dutching bettors for their high return rate. By covering the most likely final scores (e.g., 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1) in a low-scoring game, you can find a Dutching opportunity with a total implied probability well below 100%.
Horse Racing Dutching Strategy
Horse racing Dutching is popular because it maximizes winning chances, even if the individual rewards might be low.
- In-Depth Research: Before placing a wager, conduct detailed research on the runners. Valuable statistics include the number of recent wins on specific surfaces and distances, as well as official ratings.
- Selection Limit: You can typically choose up to six runners in a race.
- Strategic Exclusion: Avoid including an underdog with very low winning chances. If your picks include a very low-priced favorite, it may be wiser to avoid that race.
- Implied Probability Target: If you bet on six contenders, the total implied probability should realistically be around 50% to ensure a Dutching opportunity below 100%.
For example, selecting six horses in a race with a total implied probability of approximately 56% on a €100 total stake could result in a profit of around €77.96, whichever selected runner wins.
Dutching vs. Arbitrage and Double Chance
Dutching shares similarities with other methods but has critical distinctions:
| Feature | Dutching Betting | Arbitrage Betting (Arbing) | Double Chance Betting |
|---|---|---|---|
| Outcomes Covered | Numerous selections of the same event. | Usually based on back and lay bets, covering two outcomes. | Covers two outcomes of a single 3-way match result bet. |
| Risk/Payout | Reduces the possibility of losing money; does not guarantee returns unless all outcomes are covered and conditions met. | Primary target is a guaranteed payout regardless of the outcome. | A simple market selection. |
| Application | Applies to almost all markets. | Focused on price discrepancies. | Restricted to match result betting (win/draw/loss). |
Dutching is a decent way to minimize the chances of losing money by spreading risk. However, it is not risk-free unless all possible outcomes are covered and the appropriate stakes are invested.
Best Bookmakers for Dutching
The success of Dutching is heavily dependent on the odds available for each outcome. Therefore, securing the best Dutching betting opportunities requires looking at bookmakers that offer the highest odds and the ** most valuable offers**.
Important Note on Account Security: Any strategy that provides an advantage over bookmakers, including Dutching, can potentially lead to account restrictions or limitations (known as “gubbing”). It is advisable to Dutch your bets occasionally and combine this activity with “mug bets” (standard, non-strategic wagers) to avoid account detection.