Moneyline (ML) betting represents the most straightforward betting market available in sports gambling. Essentially, when you place a moneyline wager, you are selecting a team or athlete simply to defeat the other side. You pick the outcome of a match and choose between two or three possible results (home win, draw, or away win), depending on the specific sport.
Moneyline betting is mainly associated with US leagues, including the NFL, ice hockey, baseball, and basketball. However, it is also applied in other sports, such as soccer (football), where it operates as a 3-way market (WDW: Home Win – Draw – Away Win).
How Moneyline Betting Works
When the game concludes, sports bookmakers settle the wagers based on the final result.
In sports like soccer, the moneyline and the match result market mean precisely the same thing, and possible extra time is not included. However, in US leagues like the NHL and NBA, overtime is typically included in the final result calculation for the moneyline.
Typical Moneyline Markets:
- 2-Way Moneyline: Often found in sports that include overtime (like NHL or NBA), where the outcome is either Team A wins or Team B wins. For example, in an NHL game, the home team might pay -102 (1.98) odds, and the away team -108 (1.92).
- 3-Way Moneyline (Match Result): Primarily used in soccer, offering three outcomes: Home Win (1), Draw (X), or Away Win (2).
Overtime and Ties
A common question is what happens if a moneyline game ties.
- If you bet on events with two outcomes where possible overtime is included (like basketball or ice hockey), your bet cannot be pushed.
- In NFL (American Football), a tie after regulation and overtime is a rare possibility; if you picked the 2-way moneyline, your stake is returned (a push).
- In soccer (which features a 3-way market), the draw is the third option. If you bet on a team to win and the game ends in a draw, your bet is lost.
Understanding Moneyline Odds (US Format)
US bookmakers utilize a distinct odds format that relies on minus (-) and plus (+) signs.
| Odds Sign | Meaning | Calculation Example |
|---|---|---|
| Minus (-) | Favorite. The number indicates the required stake to win a $100 clear profit. | If the odds are -300, you must stake $300 to achieve a $100 profit. For a heavy favorite at -300 (1.33), you must stake $300 to win $100. |
| Plus (+) | Underdog. The number indicates the profit you will earn if you stake $100. | If the odds are +300, a $100 wager yields a $300 profit. This means you are backing an underdog with a 33.33% implied probability of winning. |
While betting on negative odds means your winning chances are greater, you should be satisfied with lower returns compared to positive odds.
Calculating a Moneyline Bet
To understand how the market works, consider an example where the stake is $50:
- A winning moneyline bet on a favorite at 1.32 odds gives a total of $66 ($16 clear profit).
- A winning ML bet on an underdog at 3.50 odds secures $175 ($125 profit).
- A $100 bet on a slight underdog at +140 odds (2.40 decimals) yields a total payout of $240, meaning a $140 clear profit.
Period and Quarter Moneyline Betting
Period betting has increased in popularity, allowing bettors to approach the moneyline market not just for the final result, but also for each period, quarter, or half of a game.
- Basketball (1st Quarter/4th Quarter): A time period moneyline bet is available for all four quarters of an NBA game. Wagering the ML in the 1st quarter can offer better odds and alternatives. If you believe the favorite will take an early lead, you can often secure better odds on the 1st quarter ML than the full game ML.
- NFL (Half-Time): All online bookmakers offer half-time odds, allowing wagers on the 1st or 2nd half-winner. These half-time odds can often be more profitable than full-game odds, especially because a half draw has a relatively low possibility (around 10.81%).
- NHL (Periods): Since ice hockey games are split into three 20-minute periods, betting sites offer ML odds for the three periods separately. Backing a favorite in Periods 1 and 2 often results in higher odds (e.g., 2.00 or 1.88) compared to the starting full-game odds (e.g., 1.26).
- Baseball (5-Innings): The 5-inning market (F5) is popular for bettors who prefer to limit the involvement of relief pitchers. The moneyline bet meaning here is which side will be the winner once the 5 innings conclude, regardless of the final 9-inning score.
How to Build a Winning Moneyline Betting Strategy
The simplicity of the moneyline market should be exploited in your favor by evaluating the prices offered.
- Bet on the Sports You Know: The final selection is the key part of moneyline betting. It is essential to have at least a decent knowledge of the game before placing a wager. If you are an American sports bettor with a background in NFL, ice hockey, or baseball, you can proceed.
- Check Value Odds: Finding the best available moneyline odds is critical, as even minor differences impact your bet’s payout. Always compare odds among online bookmakers. Before betting, check factors that can affect the result, such as latest news (injuries & bans), statistics & current form, home advantage, and weather conditions (for outdoor sports).
- Adopt a Long-Term Approach: Moneyline betting is a long-way run where resistance alongside your bankroll is necessary.
- Bankroll Management: Build a bankroll for at least 10 bets. Use tracking systems to monitor winnings and losses. Even if you lose more than half your wagers (e.g., six out of ten), you can still receive earnings if your winning bets are on higher odds.
- Value Picks: The best value in moneylines is primarily found on dark horses (underdogs). However, avoid backing underdogs on every bet, as this will lead to more losses than winners.
- Consider Even or Pick ‘em Bets: Moneyline is an optimal market for evens betting strategy. Close games, where both teams have a theoretical 50:50 chance, are often offered at 2.00 odds (+100). Betting on evens in a 2-way ML market can be a handy way to recover from a losing streak, as a winning case will double your starting stake.
Moneyline vs. Spread Betting
Moneyline and spread betting are different types, requiring different strategies for long-term profitability.
- Moneyline Advantage: A moneyline betting strategy is simpler: your chosen team secures returns if they win the match, even by the slightest margin. If you hunt minor underdog upsets, moneylines are for you. For underdogs, the potential profits are much higher with ML bets.
- Spread Advantage: Spread betting (or handicap betting) requires the team you back to overcome a point or goal handicap. While spread betting on underdogs minimizes your risk compared to ML, a straightforward win in ML is often preferable in close games.
- Favorites: If you back favorites with high winning chances, you will typically have lower earnings at the ML market compared to betting on the spread.
Moneyline in Parlays
The ML market is arguably the most popular market among bettors who create parlays, also known as ACCAs.
Parlays combine multiple bets in a single betslip, offering higher payouts even with small amounts of money. You can combine multiple moneyline bets in the same parlay. You can also combine ML bets with different betting types, such as point spreads or totals, within the same parlay. However, every part (or leg) of the final bet needs to be a winner to secure returns.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Is Moneyline a good bet? A: Before placing any bet, you must look at the rewards versus the risk. Moneyline offers higher payouts when you back underdogs that have winning chances. Conversely, the odds on favorites generally do not secure high earnings.
Q: What does a minus money line mean? A: The minus (-) sign indicates the stake you must bet to win $100. For example, a -150 ML means you must stake $150 to win $100. This signifies the favorite.
Q: What does +200 on the money line mean? A: A +200 moneyline means that if you place a $100 bet, you will win a $200 pure profit, resulting in a $300 total payout. This price implies a 33.33% probability of winning and signifies the underdog team.
Q: Is it smarter to bet spread or moneyline? A: The choice depends on whether you are backing a favorite or an underdog. When backing underdogs, potential profits are much higher with ML bets. When backing favorites, you may receive lower earnings with ML than with the spread.
Q: How can I hedge a moneyline bet? A: You can protect profit by hedging your starting wager. This involves placing a second ML bet against the original one to create insurance. Your win may be small, but it guarantees some earnings if you are unsure the initial bet will succeed.